The strategy
Our strategy is rooted in a clear understanding of the world we operate in, and how it might evolve in the future.
Modelling the future
In an uncertain world, success depends on听being prepared for whatever the future holds.
黑料不打烊鈥檚 strategy is shaped by insights into how our听world might look in the future, based on how current听global trends could play out over the coming years. By听modelling likely scenarios, we can pressure-test different听strategies against them, to make sure they are robust.
听
This is a continuous process, and we update our scenario听work every year as part of our annual strategy review.听We have identified three plausible scenarios for 2040,听each with different repercussions for the transport听ecosystem of the future. Based on recent development,听indicators point toward a 鈥渄iverging roads鈥 scenario in a听mid-term horizon and a 鈥渉yperlocal paths鈥 scenario in a听long-term horizon. However at this stage all remain听plausible and important to consider.
Three scenarios for transport
Biosphere highway
Global temperature increase: <2藲C
A world where sustainability leaders set the global framework for a biosphere-focused-economy.听Global governance and technocrats create a high-level common playing field, where solutions compete to solve problems. Electric transport systems have shifted to sustainable global and regional flows.
Diverging roads
Global temperature increase: >3藲C
A polarised world where strong nations focused on power lead their blocks, with very different ways of prioritising and solving problems, and impose regional standards on smaller neighbours. Transport systems, fuels, standards and resources are regional and block specific.
Hyperlocal paths
Global temperature increase: 2鈥2.75藲C
A world of local re-use economies and virtual communities, that have marginalised governments. Technologies are open-source and small-scale, with decentral digital financing across geographies. Transition of transport system struggles; transport demand declines sharply.